Global M&A Value Rises as Megadeals Return, but the Recovery Remains Narrow

• BCG Finds That Global M&A Value Rose 15% in the First Eight Months of 2026, with Gains Concentrated at the Top of the Market
• The Number of Megadeals (Transactions of $10 Billion+) Climbed to 37 During the January to August Period, Up from 24 a Year Earlier and Above 2021's Record of 32
• But Deal Activity Below $1 Billion Remains Below Longer-Term Norms, and BCG's M&A Sentiment Index, Despite Rising to 83 from 79, Stands Well Below Its Long-Term Average of 100
• As Capital and Strategic Appetite Remain Available, Asset Readiness, Valuation Gaps, and Execution Hurdles Increasingly Determine Which Transactions Move Forward

EmitenTrust.com BOSTON, Sept. 21, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Global M&A activity strengthened further in the first eight months of 2026, with aggregate deal value rising 15% year over year and exceeding the ten-year average by 11%. Megadeals worldwide climbed to 37, up from 24 during the same period last year, surpassing the record of 32 reached in 2021. But deal volume across much of the rest of the market has yet to recover, leaving the rebound narrower than the aggregate numbers suggest.

These are among the findings of a new report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), M&A Report 2026, released today. The analysis draws on data from LSEG and from BCG's proprietary M&A Sentiment Index and M&A Explorer platform, which measure the near-term deal outlook and market performance of M&A deals.

"Capital and strategic appetite are available," said Jens Kengelbach, global leader of Mergers & Acquisitions at BCG and a coauthor of the report. "The bottleneck has shifted to execution: finding transaction-ready assets, bridging valuation gaps, and clearing the operational and regulatory hurdles required to close. Until more deals pass those tests, the recovery will remain concentrated at the top of the market."

A Market Recovering Only at the Top

Divergence is clearest by deal size. Transactions valued at $1 billion or more are running above longer-term norms, while the volume of lower-tier deals—especially for small-cap and midcap transactions—remains below normal levels even before adjusting for inflation, which would make the shortfall more pronounced.

BCG identifies five tests for assessing deal executability: asset readiness, market-clearing economics, resilient financing, organizational capacity, and regulatory clearance. Asset availability and economics are currently the most binding constraints on a broader recovery; financing and organizational capacity are less restricted at the market level, although they still shape individual deals.

Sentiment Is Improving, but Unevenly

BCG's M&A Sentiment Index—a proprietary approach to measuring current near-term deal outlook that combines fundamental market drivers with AI-based analysis of corporate communications—rose to 83 in the first eight months of 2026, up from 79 at the start of the year but below its long-term average of 100. The improvement is uneven across sectors: sentiment was strongest in financial institutions and real estate (108), health care (100), and energy (96), while industrials (66), consumer (64), and technology (52) lagged. Notably, the weaker deal sentiment reading in the technology and consumer sectors sits alongside continued deal-value growth in both. Technology, media, and telecommunications remained the largest sector by aggregate deal value, up 11% year over year, while consumer deal value rose 20%.

AI Is Fueling Deals and Complicating Them

AI is playing a dual role in the current cycle. It is encouraging new investment and deal activity in parts of the market but also adding uncertainty around the durability of business models, revenue pools, and competitive positioning in others, making some assets harder to value and transact. A sharp correction in software company valuations earlier this year, together with a pullback in private-equity software deal activity, is an early sign of that dynamic.

Beyond the headline numbers, the report offers several key insights:

• The rebound is regionally uneven. North America led global M&A activity by a wide margin, accounting for more than half of aggregate deal value. Europe posted the strongest percentage growth of any major region, while Asia-Pacific activity declined.
• Regulatory risk is shifting rather than receding. Conventional antitrust enforcement may be less restrictive in parts of the market, but national-security screening, foreign-investment controls, and foreign-subsidy reviews increasingly influence deal terms, timing, and economics.
• Portfolio rotation can broaden the recovery. A greater number of divestitures, carve-outs, and private equity exits could increase the supply of prepared assets and free up capital for higher-priority businesses in the next leg of the M&A recovery.
• Alternative deal structures can bridge uncertainty. Minority investments, joint ventures, staged acquisitions, earnouts, and rollover equity can help parties share valuation, technology, control, and regulatory risk. More dealmakers, especially in the AI ecosystem, are using those structures to get deals done.

"AI is doing two things to this market at once," said Daniel Friedman, global leader of Transactions & Integrations at BCG and a coauthor of the report. "It's a reason to do more deals and a reason some deals are harder to close. The companies that get furthest ahead are likely to be the ones that have actually worked out which is true for the asset in front of them."

Download the publication here.

Media Contact:
Bruce Wraight, wraight.bruce@bcg.com 

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SOURCE Boston Consulting Group (BCG)